Deutsche Bank Research

Deutsche Bank's solar and clean tech analyst Corinne Blanchard joined CNBC's “Power Lunch” for a discussion on solar stocks. Watch the segment here: https://lnkd.in/gsivzjAA #dbresearch #DeutscheBank

🎧 Endlich mehr in der Tasche? So viel mehr verdienen die Deutschen jetzt 💶 Saftige Gehaltssteigerungen und nachlassende Inflation: Podzept analysiert, wie sich die Einkommen der Deutschen entwickeln und was das für unseren Konsum bedeutet. In Deutschland erleben wir gerade einen deutlichen Anstieg der Realeinkommen. Grund dafür sind teils erhebliche Gehaltssteigerungen und die deutlich nachlassende Inflation. Doch wie nachhaltig ist diese Entwicklung und was bedeutet sie für unseren Konsum? Im neuen Podcast von Deutsche Bank Research sprechen wir mit Volkswirt Marc Schattenberg über die aktuellen Lohnentwicklungen und deren Auswirkungen. „Unter dem Strich dürften die Tariflöhne 2024 um 5,7% zulegen nach 3,6% im Jahr 2023“, so Schattenberg. Besonders starke Zuwächse gebe es im öffentlichen Dienst sowie im Einzel-, Groß- und Außenhandel. Obwohl die gestiegenen Reallöhne noch nicht im selben Maße zu einem Konsumanstieg geführt haben, erwartet Schattenberg für die zweite Jahreshälfte eine deutliche Belebung. 👉 Was denken Sie: Werden die Deutschen ihren neu gewonnenen finanziellen Spielraum nutzen, um die Wirtschaft anzukurbeln? Hier geht es zum neuen Podcast: https://lnkd.in/gwSYTZES Podzept können Sie hier direkt und bequem auf ihrem Smartphone hören und abonnieren; https://lnkd.in/eDbTHD8j #dbresearch #Gehalt #Inflation #Konsum #Wirtschaft #Deutschland #Podzept

Welcome to our latest edition of Quant Pulse! In this week's episode Caio Natividade explores the latest market trends and the performance of Deutsche Bank's quant systematic strategies. He highlights last week’s economic and political developments and how they tie in with the performance of our quant portfolios. He also delves into the three categories of our quant suite – defensive, balanced and pro-cyclical – and highlights their key drivers. Caio ends the podcast by discussing this week’s macro developments and what that may mean for QIS strategies. 🎧 Listen to the full podcast here: https://lnkd.in/ed2Cei6D And you can find a whole range of Podzept podcasts here: https://lnkd.in/dxZKuYJ

Ready to launch into the future of space exploration? 🚀 The latest episode of 'Making Sense of Space' explores the game-changing role of AI in space data analytics. Our head of Global Space & Aerial Mobility research, Edison Yu has an insightful conversation with Peter Platzer, CEO of Spire, about how AI is revolutionising our understanding of space. They discuss the current applications of AI, from optimising satellite operations to uncovering hidden patterns in massive datasets, and discuss the exciting potential of generative AI and large language models (LLMs) to unlock even deeper insights from space data. Peter shares his vision for the future of space exploration, highlighting the importance of collaboration and evolving business models. Don't miss out on this fascinating discussion about the intersection of AI and space! And watch this space (pun intended!) for part two of the discussion. 🎧 Listen to the full podcast here: https://lnkd.in/esFNtPDd #AI #SpaceExploration #DataAnalytics #Innovation #FutureofTech

🌏 We recently held our 2nd annual Climate & Security Day in London. After a full day of panel discussions and presentations, what was clear is that discussions about "Climate and Security" are having a meaningful impact on corporate strategy and risk decisions for companies across all sectors. Here are our top conference takeaways: ▶️ Heightened geopolitical tensions have sharpened the focus on energy security and led to renewed attention on how the energy transition could help alleviate the risks present in cross-border energy dependencies globally. ▶️ To ensure energy transition challenges are addressed, bold policy approaches are required from governments. ▶️ Heightened supply chain risk will make it more difficult for companies to meet their environmental commitments. ▶️ Infrastructure vulnerability has increased due to changing weather patterns and natural hazards. ▶️ AI should be seen as complementary to human workers, with AI skilled at historical analysis and humans offering compelling visions of the future. Successful AI implementation hinges on ensuring workers can effectively use AI tools, with corporate interest in developing these tools driving demand for skilled prompt engineers. 🙏 Thank you to everyone who attended the event – we look forward to seeing you again next year! Deutsche Bank Research clients can read the full report on the event here: https://lnkd.in/ejm2_y2A Photo L-R: Agata Raszkiewicz, Emily Kreps, Deborah Jones Hofmann, Claire Coustar #climatechange #climatesecurity #artificialintelligence #supplychains #dbSustainability #sustainability

Calling all institutional clients! The 2024 Institutional Investor Global Fixed Income Research survey has officially kicked off! If you have found our research helpful in your investment process, we’d appreciate your vote for our analysts and economists in this year’s survey. Deutsche Bank clients can vote here: https://lnkd.in/egmwymGR Thank you in advance for your support! #dbresearch #DeutscheBank

📊 Today’s chart is taken from a report published by our FX research team, headed up by George Saravelos. The report looks at three main FX hedging themes for corporates, including the big picture dollar cycle, the impact of the US election on EM FX, and a discussion on optimal hedging strategies involving simple momentum-based rules. 💲 The dollar has remained strong through H1 2024, albeit amid low volatility. Our FX forecasts continue to see the dollar staying stronger for longer. On the one hand, our FX research analysts see risks continuing to skew towards greater divergence in central bank pricing favouring the Fed. Combined with the dollar's status as a high-yielding currency, this provides a powerful underpinning to USD strength. On the other hand, the approaching US election also matters. With the Trump campaign increasingly emphasising tariffs, as opposed to a weak dollar policy, the risks to our analysts' forecasts would be skewed to an even stronger dollar if protectionist US trade policy was to go ahead. Deutsche Bank Research clients can read the full report here: https://lnkd.in/dMCtfsTi #dbresearch #chartoftheday #fx #fxhedging

At this mid-point of the year, the outlook for the world economy is better than previously feared 🌏. This clears up some of the roadblocks for Asia macro as well, although there are still plenty of gaps to be mindful of, according to our Asia Pacific macro strategy team. As a trade focused economic region, Asia has most to benefit from an increased likelihood in recent months that central banks will be able to land the global economies in a somewhat orderly fashion. Four of the G10 central banks have started cutting rates, and with disinflation back on track in the US, the Fed should be keeping the door open to a similar move after the summer. This should allow for Asia policy to recalibrate to more domestic growth/inflation considerations. Tailwinds from global demand is helping China to sustain growth around its target of 5%. Even as the headwinds from core rates and China macro ease, the second half will potentially bring wider geopolitical tails. With fiscal risks looking more likely in the face of a shift towards populism and the temptation to alter institutional structures to fund the same; policy safeguards will be key to how economies, and markets, navigate the potential gaps ahead. While there are clearly challenges ahead, there are also notable opportunities, particularly in ASEAN, which is benefitting from a pick-up and broadening of Chinese investments. In 2023, China was the largest investor in the region, surpassing North Asia, the US and EU. Its increasing investment into ASEAN has been focused on EV related industries, particularly in Indonesia and Thailand, which is a change from traditional investment into the electronics sector, predominantly in Vietnam.

🎧 In episode 4 of Quant Pulse, Vivek Anand, CQF, from our quantitative strategy research team, discusses the latest cautiously bullish market environment shaped by economic data releases and significant political events. Vivek examines the performance of our systematic strategies, highlighting the continued winning streak of Portfolio 365 over the past 4 weeks. He also shares insights from the Deutsche Bank Research team, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook as we head into the Q2 earnings season. Wrapping up, he highlights key economic indicators and events to watch this week and their potential impact on quant investing. Our weekly podcast, Quant Pulse, navigates markets through the lens of the quantitative investor. Each week, we delve into market dynamics and what they mean for our suite of systematic strategies, divided across defensive, balanced, and pro-cyclical categories. Each episode, clocking in at around 5 minutes, is a compact and insightful exploration of the week’s highlights. 🎧 We hope you enjoy this episode. Thank you for listening! https://lnkd.in/e4m4iir7

🇫🇷 As the dust settles after the second round of the French elections, it is clear the situation is very unusual in the context of French politics. A new government and equilibrium in the lower house could take weeks or even months to emerge. The balance of power in the lower house is still leaning towards the historical centre-left. We asked some of our Deutsche Bank Research economists and analysts what they make of the outcome. ▶️ Jim Reid, Global Head of Macro Research: The tactical voting to block the far-right has succeeded so much that it’s swung the pendulum in the opposite direction, but without anyone having an overall majority. The New Popular Front (Nouveau Front populaire) have the most fiscally aggressive programme in terms of both spending and taxation and the market will be suspicious that the prospect of them being in government now, or later, will bring higher deficits with the associated concerns about debt sustainability and tense relations with Europe. Last night, the far-left were already talking about wealth taxes and increases on taxes on corporates which won’t be market friendly. However, trying to build a government that has any kind of stability looks a very high bar. ▶️ George Saravelos, Global Head of FX: The French election did not increase systemic risks in Europe, leading to a muted market reaction. We have concerns about Europe’s capacity to build a strategic autonomy agenda going forward, however. As a result we expect the euro to remain weak and vulnerable to the US election outcome. ▶️ Carolin Raab, CFA, European Equity Strategist: The equity market reaction has so far been slightly positive, reflecting some relief that neither the tail risk of a far-right, nor of a far-left majority, has materialised. Nevertheless, due to the difficult process of forming a government now, we expect volatility to remain elevated over the coming weeks. #dbresearch